🔗 Share this article

It was two months ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Challengers?

This is a particularly tough query to address. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

As per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.

A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
• The winger might become the performer he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.