A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
